ARISTIDE THE WILD CARD IN HAITI'S ELECTION
(The Toronto Star) - By Kenneth Kidd
PORT-AU-PRINCE—The possibly imminent arrival of twice-ousted president Jean-Bertrand Aristide, just days ahead of a controversial presidential election, has propelled Haiti into a raw state of excitement mixed with apprehension.
Aristide had been expected to arrive Thursday from South Africa, where he has lived in exile for the past seven years, despite calls from the United States and the contenders in Sunday’s election that he remain outside the country until polling is complete.
But there are reports that Aristide’s departure from South Africa — on a chartered plane accompanied by actor and activist Danny Glover — might be delayed under American pressure.
“I wouldn’t be shocked if his plane was diverted or they tried to do something last minute,” said Nicole Phillips, staff lawyer with the Institute for Justice and Democracy in Haiti, which has condemned the election as a sham because it excludes Aristide’s former Lavalas party.
Aristide, the former priest who became Haiti’s first democratically elected president in 1990, remains hugely popular in many quarters, particularly among the poorest.
Yet it’s unclear how tumultuous his arrival might be, or what effect it could have on the presidential election.
The regular demonstrations calling for Aristide’s return have grown smaller in recent years, and he is still viewed with contempt and loathing by the country’s wealthy elite.
Presidential candidate Mirlande Manigat told a press conference Wednesday that, while “nobody can stop him if he purchases his ticket,” she worries Aristide’s determination to come back now will suppress voter turnout.
“We need calm, we need serenity, for participation,” Manigat said.
She hopes as many as 50 per cent of voters will cast ballots, more than twice the number that did so in the botched November election that led to the current runoff.
Haiti was already on tenterhooks ahead of Sunday’s vote, pitting Manigat, a 70-year-old constitutional lawyer and former first lady, against Michel “Sweet Micky” Martelly, a popular kompa musician who is 20 years her junior.
A second public debate between the two was to have taken place Wednesday, but Martelly pulled out.
Instead, Manigat used the occasion to warn of a “crescendo of violence” in recent days, in which Martelly partisans have disrupted her campaign stops. She said it’s “possible” that this “rising wave” could peak over the weekend.
“Yes, I am worried,” she said, “not only on the day of the election, but on the eve, on the night.”
The Martelly campaign quickly countered with its own denunciation of violence and “all forms of intimidation,” before accusing the Manigat team of continuing a deliberate campaign of misinformation.
Martelly has of late been publicly boastful about the likelihood of his victory.
One recent poll put him ahead with 51 per cent of decided voters, versus 46 per cent for Manigat, although such tallies in Haiti are often unreliable.
Martelly, who is backed by the Haitian-born hip-hop star, Wyclef Jean, draws much of his support from among the urban youth. Manigat is strong among older voters, and in the regions.
Ironically, Martelly’s image as a political outsider seems to have tapped the same vein of frustration, especially among the poorest Haitians, that traditionally coalesced around Aristide.
When and if Aristide returns, he’s expected to be greeted by thousands of supporters.
How many thousands, is the big unknown — just one of many uncertainties surrounding Aristide.
Earlier this week, U.S. State Department spokesman Mark Toner said Aristide’s return “can only be seen as a conscious choice to impact Haiti’s election.”
He urged Aristide “to delay his return until after the electoral process has concluded, to permit the Haitian people to cast their ballots in a peaceful atmosphere.”
But Ira Kurzban, Aristide’s lawyer, said again Wednesday that his client only wants to get involved in educational projects as part of Haiti’s reconstruction after last year’s devastating earthquake.
Aristide is also said to worry that, if he waits until after the election, he might be barred from returning by whoever wins the election Sunday.
“It seems like a narrow window where he feels he can come back,” said Phillips.
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