ARTICLE - 2012 WEATHER FORECAST

WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE 2012 SEASON
(Haiti Libre) -

Weather experts, Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray of the Tropical Meteorology Project of Colorado State University predict that the hurricane season in the Atlantic basin will have reduced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology.

"The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are relatively high. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. However, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."

Probabilities for at least one major (category 3-4-5) hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas :

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 42% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 24% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 24% (average for last century is 30%)

Probability for at least one major (category 3-4-5) hurricane tracking into the Caribbean (10-20°N, 60-88°W) is of 34% (average for last century is 42%)

Information obtained through March 2012 indicates that the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will have less activity than the median 1981-2010 season. We estimate that 2012 will have about :

4 hurricanes (median is 6.5)
10 named storms (median is 12.0)
40 named storm days (median is 60.1)
16 hurricane days (median is 21.3)
2 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (median is 2.0)
3 major hurricane days (median is 3.9).

This forecast is based on a new extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 29 years of past data.